Using remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems in studying urban growth trends and future projections for Baghdad Governorate during the period (2000–2050)

., .; ., .; قطوش, محمد ربيع فرج

doi:10.21608/qarts.2025.417281.2298

Using remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems in studying urban growth trends and future projections for Baghdad Governorate during the period (2000–2050)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

قسم الجغرافيا- کلية الآداب- جامعة القاهرة

10.21608/qarts.2025.417281.2298

Abstract

Urban growth in the city of Baghdad has witnessed rapid transformations in recent decades, influenced by population increases and economic, social, and environmental pressures. This has highlighted the urgent need for precise spatial analysis tools to understand the trends of this expansion and predict its future paths. This research relied on remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems to study urban growth in Baghdad for the period between 2000–2024, analyzing patterns of spatial expansion and identifying its main axes.

The results showed that urban expansion took unbalanced paths, with the northern and western directions emerging as major axes due to the availability of land and proximity to transportation corridors, while the east witnessed gradual growth linked to the extension towards Diyala Governorate. The south remained the least expanded due to environmental and agricultural obstacles. The analysis also showed that urban areas increased from about (830.9 km2) in 2000 to more than (1727.36 km2) in 2024, an increase of nearly double in a quarter of a century.

Based on these data, spatial modeling was applied using the multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methodology to predict expected future areas until 2050. The models showed that urbanization will witness a significant leap, reaching an occupied area of more than (3091 km2), which is equivalent to nearly three times the urban area recorded in 2000.

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